Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis is a statistical technique used in project management and decision-making to quantify risks and opportunities. A software tool or spreadsheet designed for this purpose allows users to input potential outcomes, their associated monetary values, and the probability of each outcome occurring. For example, a business might use such a tool to assess the potential financial impact of launching a new product, considering scenarios like high sales, moderate sales, and low sales, each with assigned probabilities and financial returns. The tool then calculates the weighted average of these outcomes, providing a single value representing the overall expected financial result.
This type of quantitative risk assessment provides a structured approach to decision-making under uncertainty. By assigning monetary values to different outcomes and factoring in their probabilities, organizations can make more informed choices about projects and investments. It allows for comparison of different options and prioritization based on potential return and risk. While originating in game theory, this methodology has become a cornerstone of modern project management, offering a crucial framework for navigating complex scenarios and maximizing potential gains while minimizing potential losses.